What Are the Chances?: Introduction to Chance Processes, Probability, and Probability Models Unit
The goals of this unit are:
- Students will become familiar with the concepts of chance and probability along with their related terms such as theoretical and experimental probability
- Students will be able to assess the probability of an event occurring
- Students will learn to relate and make connections between theoretical and experimental probability
- Students will understand how to create, interpret, and apply probability models
Content Standards Addressed:
- MCC7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
- MCC7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long‐run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
- MCC7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
- MCC7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
- MCC7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open‐end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
Practice Standards Addressed:
All eight practice standards are addressed in this unit!
1) Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
2) Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3) Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4) Model with mathematics.
5) Use appropriate tools strategically.
6) Attend to precision.
7) Look for and make use of structure.
8) Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.
1) Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
2) Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3) Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
4) Model with mathematics.
5) Use appropriate tools strategically.
6) Attend to precision.
7) Look for and make use of structure.
8) Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.
Unit Outline
Lesson 1
Activity- Gizmos Probability Spinner
Formative Assessment- Kahoot
Lesson 2
Activity- Horse Race
Formative Assessment- Card Applet Group Activity
Summative Assessment: Project
Activity- Gizmos Probability Spinner
Formative Assessment- Kahoot
Lesson 2
Activity- Horse Race
Formative Assessment- Card Applet Group Activity
Summative Assessment: Project